Key Realtors share their 2012 real-estate predictions

Judy Kepecz-Hays
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
I noticed in 2011 that many owners and buyers took a more realistic position on what the property was actually worth. Surprisingly, that number is not that far off of what it was in 2004. Those who purchased then have not really lost anything at today’s prices.

I look for the trend to continue. The economy is stabilizing, and the market is again above 12,000. Although our inventory is low, the product that is on the market is priced well. There was never a lot of low-end bargains on the keys or mainland waterfront, and those that were here are gone. Overall, I expect 2012 to be as good as 2011, and possibly even better.

Reid Murphy
Developers Realty Corp.
2012 should be very active, because many sellers are educated and understand the key to selling their properties is the importance of pricing it correctly for current market conditions. The record-breaking low interest rates are also an incentive to many cash buyers as an alternative smart use of their funds. The fact that waterfront properties are limited — and the cliché that they aren’t making anymore waterfront — will also drive our sales in 2012, as inventory trends downward as owners appreciate what they own here on Longboat and remain in their homes and condos.

Our season will be active with the traditional United States buyer seeking our climate, beautiful beach and Gulf waters. In addition, our overseas buyers will continue to drive our market sales, because they perceive the value plus the unsurpassed living environment of Longboat Key.

Roger Pettingell
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
I see the 2012 market as one in which buyers and sellers come back into balance. The continuation of decreasing inventory, coupled with a constant or even increasing demand, will firm up pricing. Uncertainty in world markets and the U.S. elections will likely keep prices around current levels; unique properties, particularly those in prime waterfront locations, may start to see some appreciation.

Barbara Ackerman
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
Longboat was the last (local market) to do down and will be the first to recover. Inventory is at least 30% less than last year at this time, which is peak season. This factor creates price stability in the market.
The other factor for Longboat Key is that many of the communities were developed in the ’90s. The buyers are seeing the need to renovate. This requires a special buyer who is willing to do the work. It was not until last year that sellers recognized this and adjusted their prices to meet market conditions, plus reducing the prices to allow for the work that is needed.

Because you are not competing with new construction like Lakewood Ranch, for example, buyers have limited choices, which adds quicker market recovery on Longboat Key.

Lynne Koy
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
We are seeing new home construction on Longboat Key, Lido/St. Armands and Bird Key, where I live. There are currently 10 homes in various stages of construction on Bird Key, with another five on the drawing boards. Buyers in the luxury market want new homes versus renovated homes, and they are willing to pay for them.

I believe that the international buyer is, once again, considering a serious real-estate investment in our area. In the last six months, I have closed $15 million with out-of-country buyers. I am receiving daily inquiries from buyers in Canada, Great Britain, South America, Japan and Russia.

It’s too soon to predict a full recovery for real estate on the keys, but I would say we are definitely on our way!

Bruce Myer
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
I think for the first time it feels like the market may be bottoming out. Even though we’re starting to see an increase in inventory now, which is typical for this time of the year because people want to put their homes back on market, inventory is down quite a bit from what it was in the last couple of years. Based on that, I don’t know if we’re really going see an appreciation, hopefully we’re done with the depreciation side of the equation.

Fortunately, we have not suffered from a lot of short sales or foreclosures, which has pulled other markets down. Our market is a little more solid, which also speaks well for this area.

Louis Wery
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
I foresee gradual improvement for the 2012 real-estate sector in Sarasota County. While our market attracts welcome attention, thanks to our cultural and recreational amenities, buyers continue to react to worldwide economic volatility. Fortunately, we are seeing lower inventory levels, which are stabilizing prices, especially on the islands.

Even so, I expect a slight upward trend in sales volume and prices this year. If the United States Congress passes the proposed VISIT USA Act (“Visa Improvements to Stimulate International Tourism to the United States of America Act”), then I think our area will rapidly receive attention from foreign investors and international real-estate buyers eager to receive automatic visas, and that would dramatically improve the short-term scenario for the local real-estate sector.

Deborah Beacham
Michael Saunders & Co.
2012 is going to be the year we return to strong sales in the luxury market. Since Dec. 1, there are 13 properties in Sarasota and Manatee counties with pending sales in the $2 million-plus range. Judging by the showing activity in most neighborhoods, the market will be very busy, indeed.

With current inventories so low — across price ranges it’s important that building activity has significantly increased. Buyers today do not want to go through the two- to three-year process it takes to design, permit and build a new home. This is clearly evident in the high-end properties that are now pending: Most of these pending sales are for newer construction or nicely renovated properties. Continuing low interest rates, combined with excellent press coverage about our area’s beautiful beaches, a world-class cultural community, an extraordinary lifestyle and unprecedented real-estate opportunities, all combine to make 2012 a watershed year for buying and selling real estate in Sarasota-Manatee counties.

Patrick Dipinto III
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
As far as the market goes in 2012, I am seeing very positive signs. Our Sarasota inventory has declined from 15,000 properties a couple of years ago to about 5,000 properties. In addition to that, unit sales continue to increase month after month — a trend that has been on the rise almost monthly for 20-plus months. Most of my affluent clients have been coming to Longboat Key for years. These people have experienced the market in the past and have a good idea of where it is going based on the extremely low inventory levels. They know how truly unique our little  “utopia” is and are beginning to feel good about our local prices again. My typical client has multiple homes, so for them to move forward on a property, they need to see and feel value. Many of our local properties are selling at a price point that goes back 1999 or 2000.  So, when that occurs,  “it feels good and people see value.”

My client today is not asking me if they are going to make a large return on the purchase in six months. These experienced and savvy clients are looking at the current real-estate purchase as a long-time investment.

Michael Moulton
Michael Saunders & Co.
Not surprisingly, I am bullish about our region’s real-estate recovery over the next year. No, we will not rush to return to the days of 2005, but, with prices skimming along the proverbial “bottom”; a reduced number of luxury homes in like-new and move-in-ready condition; limited new construction inventory entering the market over the last several years; many buyers at the high end prepared to pay cash for their purchases; and, for those who need or want financing, the lowest interest rates in our lifetime; stabilization of the foreclosures market; the extraordinary interest in our area from foreign buyers; the knowledge that purchasing a well-priced high-quality property, especially at today’s great values, is a long-term security; and the greatest community in the nation to live and work, I think we are on the verge of a steady and sustained recovery.