Joe on the Go: Making the rounds on Election Night

After all the hoopla leading up to it, Election Night turned out to be a rapid-fire affair in terms of learning who won and who lost.

Supervisor of Elections Kathy Dent and her staff released the early voting and absentee numbers at 7 p.m. and posted the final results 15 minutes later in what Dent described as “record time” for a city election.

Mayor Suzanne Atwell retained her Sarasota City Commission seat, earning another four years in office. As the leading vote-getter, she received 4,575 votes, which equates to 38.48% of the 11,888 votes cast or 64.4% of the 7,102 ballots filled out.

The Supervisor’s Office uses the first percentage figure. The City uses the second, taking into account that each voter was allowed to vote for two candidates because there were two at-large seats up for grabs.

Finishing 695 votes ahead of the other two candidates, Atwell’s victory ends a recent streak of incumbent commissioners failing to win reelection---a list that includes Dick Clapp, Ken Shelin, Danny Bilyeu and Mary Anne Servian.

Susan Chapman earned the second at-large seat with 3,880 votes, 32.6% of the total votes cast and the support of 54.6% of those who voted.

Despite spending more than $60,000 on his campaign, Richard Dorfman finished out of the money, receiving 3,433 votes, 28.8% of the total votes cast and receiving support from 48.3% of those who voted.

By The Numbers

Bucking another recent trend, voter turnout in the May run-off election increased to 19.94%, up from the 17.34% turnout in the March “primary,” with 7,102 city voters participating in the May election compared to 6,153 in March.

The numbers also suggest that absentee voting is becoming the favored method of voting in city elections, with 46 percent of the ballots cast in that manner. Leading up to the May 14 election, 3,286 people voted by absentee ballot (ballots typically delivered to voters by mail, filled out at home and returned by mail or in person to the Elections Office on or before Election Day).

The traditionalists who still prefer going to the polls on Election Day accounted for 2,677 votes and 1,139 voters voted during the weeklong early voting period.

One of the big questions leading up the run-off election pertained to "bullet voting," a concept that involves voters using only one of their two votes so as not to give their second vote to another candidate.

Given the vast philosophical and personal differences between the Chapman and Dorfman camps, pundits felt bullet voting might favor these two candidates, while voters voting for two candidates would bode well for Atwell (the “centrist” candidate) because Dorfman voters were unlikely to vote for Chapman and vice versa.

According to my math, 2,316 voters bullet voted, but 4,786 voters voted for two candidates, likely contributing to Atwell’s margin of victory.

Radio Pundits

Before heading to the Supervisor of Elections office to watch the results come in, I had the pleasure of appearing on The Nilon Report, talking local politics with WSRQ General Manager Susan Nilon and SRQ Magazine Senior Editor Jacob Ogles.

An hour before the polls closed, Ogles predicted that Atwell and Chapman would be the two winners.

I incorrectly predicted that Chapman and Dorfman would finish first and second based on my belief that the passion exhibited by the Chapman and Dorfman campaigns and bullet voting might offset the “steady as she goes” reelection strategy navigated by Atwell and campaign manager Grace Carlson.

We also discussed the impact the HuB business incubator and its owner, Jesse Biter, would have on the outcome of the race. I wondered aloud if receiving so much support from Biter and the HuB would backfire on Dorfman, working against the candidate in the court of public opinion.

In the end, the HuB’s support produced a third place finish for Dorfman, who also finished third in March, when HuB-supported political newcomer Kelvin Lumpkin finished fifth in the six-candidate primary.

While the efforts did not produce a winner, it’s likely the HuB will remain a significant player in local politics and will flex its political muscle again in the 2014 County Commission races and the 2015 City Commission district races.

Election Office Action

From the WSRQ studio, I made my way to the Supervisor of Elections Office---ground zero in terms of getting the election results first.

The small gathering inside the public viewing area prior to the 7 p.m. release of the early voting results included County Commissioners Carolyn Mason and Joe Barbetta, ACLU attorney Michael Barfield, print journalist Jon Susce, TV journalist Max Winitz, a Chapman supporter who wished to remain anonymous and the aforementioned Nilon.

As was the case in March, the early voting-absentee numbers accurately predicted the final outcome, with Atwell in the lead from the beginning, followed by Chapman and Dorfman.

When the votes from the city’s 18 voting precincts were added to the early voting totals, Dorfman made small gains on Chapman, but never enough to bridge the 400-vote gap that mired him in third place.

As the results came in, texts and phone calls made from inside the public viewing room relayed this information to the candidate gatherings taking place around town.

By 7:15 it was all over, with two female Democrats victorious. When Sarasota Democratic Party Chair Rita Ferrandino walked in two minutes later she was surprised to learn that the final results were already in, but was pleased with the outcome.

While the Sarasota County Commission remains a Republican-dominated body, Democrats continue to experience success at the city level, with Vice-Mayor Willie Shaw also a member of the Democratic Party.

Dorfman Gracious in DefeatOnce the results were  in, my next stop was the Dorfman gathering taking place at Patrick’s on Main Street.

Typically, the losing candidate’s party is the first to end, so I thought I’d speak to Richard before catching up with Suzanne and Susan.

Standing outside Patrick’s within 15 minutes of learning his fate, Richard graciously answered media questions, giving an honest and heartfelt response when asked how it felt to come up short after investing so much time and energy into his campaign.

“It’s incredibly disappointing, it’s indescribably disappointing,” he said. “You feel horrible, there’s no two ways about it.”

Making a sports analogy, the former sports agent stated that one always sets out with the expectation of winning, and losing feels “miserable.”

He talked about how difficult it was to maintain the high level of energy required during the final two weeks of the campaign, noting that although he was “running on fumes” he and his staff never let up.

“I think we worked harder than any campaign team out there,” he said. “I don’t think it’s necessarily that we did not do enough, but the voters decided they wanted a different direction.”

Inside Patrick’s, I spoke with a couple Dorfman supporters, one of whom suggested that the “sucking sound we hear” will be the sound of development taking place in Lakewood Ranch and other locales outside the city limits.

Another Dorman supporter said he wasn’t so sure about the “sucking sound” reference, but did think the failure to elect both Atwell and Dorfman would lead to two more years of “status quo” in terms of downtown development.

Atwell Celebrates Four More YearsA few blocks over at the Blue Rooster, the mood was more joyous. Mayor Atwell stood outside speaking with well-wishers and media members. She described her mood as “extraordinarily great,” noting that she considered it a privilege to run as an incumbent after governing in the city for the past four years.

As for why her centrist campaign strategy resonated with voters, the Mayor said, “When you campaign, you’re campaigning on issues that are on the edge of policy issues; but when get up there at the dais and you’re governing, you have to govern from the center. Governing is not campaigning. Governing is looking at the entire community and the greater good and trying to bring consensus, and I’ve been in that position for the past four years.”

Her to-do list for her next term includes bringing more development to the Rosemary District and the North Trail, looking at form-based building codes and bringing more opportunity to the downtown core, all of which she planned to address in her State of the City address scheduled for noon on Friday May 17, when she and Commissioner Chapman are sworn in and outgoing Commissioner Terry Turner makes his farewell presentation.

Inside the Blue Rooster, Grace Carlson and Diana Hamilton were among those celebrating Atwell’s victory. As I was leaving, Savory Street co-owner Jim Lampl and longtime political activist and former state legislature candidate Cathy Antunes arrived together and congratulated Suzanne on her victory.

Chapman Focused on the Job AheadMy final stop was the Chapman celebration taking place at the Word of Mouth café on Osprey Avenue---a gathering that included Vice Mayor Willie Shaw, former commissioners Kelly Kirschner and Dick Clapp, campaign supporters Jennifer Ahearn-Koch, Gretchen Serrie, Kafi Benz, Robin Harrington, Barbara Langston and Valerie Buchand.

Basking in the glow of a hard-won victory, Susan said, “I am so grateful that we were able to prove that you could follow the campaign finance rules, run a grassroots campaign and still win.”

As for the work that lies ahead, she mentioned reaching a “noise compromise,” developing a “comprehensive plan to address homelessness, vagrancy and panhandling” and addressing “fiscal issues looming over the city.”

Echoing the Mayor’s comments, Susan also mentioned expanding the use of form-based codes, which in layman’s terms is a means of regulating development by placing more emphasis on the design, character, scope and aesthetics of a building and how it fits into a greater vision for a certain area, with less concern devoted to the actual intended use of the proposed development.

The Cycle Never Ends

With the 2013 elections now behind us, talk has already turned to the 2014 Sarasota County Commission races, with Commissioners Nora Patterson and Joe Barbetta term-limiting out of office and candidates already lining up to replace them.

And it’s not too early to start giving thought to the 2015 City Commission district races, with District 2 Commissioner Paul Caragiulo having publicly stated that he does not intend to run for a second term and District 3 Commissioner Shannon Snyder having suggested privately that he may not run for reelection.