Forget global warming; data show next Ice Age is more likely

OK, I confess. I believe in Climate Change. 

And why not? 

Constant change has been a part of the Earth’s climate history since the planet was formed 4.5 billion to 4.6 billion years ago. There has never been a long period of flat-line temperature in the history of the sphere.

The question to me has always been: Is the activity of mankind having a real and manageable effect on the climate of the Earth?  

I can start to answer that question by first denouncing any severe climactic effect of carbon dioxide, or increasing levels of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. 

For one thing, there have been periods in the history of the Earth when CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere was nearly 20 times what it is today, and there was widespread glaciation on the Earth (e.g., Ordovician/Silurian 420-450 million years ago, 4,000 ppm CO2).   

Furthermore, I can show you graphs of temperature and CO2 levels, the data for which was derived from Greenland ice cores, showing that CO2 continues to increase 200 to 600 years after a period of rising temperature changed direction — leveled off or and started to decline. Therefore, CO2 is an effect of rising temperature, not a cause of temperature increase.  

And why not? The Earth is 71% ocean surface, and it takes time for the water to give up its extra CO2 after it warms up.  

But I worry that the galloping hordes of doom-crying climate geeks are missing the big picture: The last nine Ice Ages lasted about 100,000 years each. They were more or less 90,000 years of cold, dry and windy (the Ice Age), and 10,000 years of warm and wet (the Inter-glacial period, which is what we are enjoying now). 

Note: Because of the over-lapping variations in the eight or 10 major drivers of climate, those are average “round numbers.” That 100,000-year period happens to coincide with the period for the completion of a cycle of variation in the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbital path around the Sun, from mostly circular to slightly elliptical and back. So it looks like that should be a major controlling factor. It doesn’t vary much, but the ice-core temperature history shows that the climate can shift surprisingly quickly from Ice Age to Inter-Glacial or back — sometime in as little as 100 years or so.  

OK, so why am I worried that the politicos have it all wrong about the potential of our being scorched by the Earth’s “CO2-induced” heat and drowned by rising sea-levels? Because 18,000 years ago, the edge of the North American ice sheet was at Cincinnati. By 14,000 years ago the Earth had warmed up and the ice sheet had started to recede up to Cleveland. No coal-fired power plants, no internal combustion engines, just Mother Nature working its magic climatic change like it has done many times before.  

Thus, the numbers could indicate that we have just about used up our 10,000 years of Inter-glacial period. Ho, ho, ho! Christmas in July.

Bear in mind that some (presumably honest) scientists say that there hasn’t been any real temperature increase in the Earth’s temperature for the past 15 years. Hold on, didn’t we just have two horrendously cold winters up north? What if we get another couple really cold winters? Say, four real freezers in a row?  

Don’t the TV weathermen tell us that weather patterns tend to continue after they get established? Or maybe the two freezer winters were a false alarm, and I am getting too far ahead of myself in trying to reach a conclusion that the next Ice Age is just around the corner — a couple centuries away maybe, or less. 

That is perhaps no more far-fetched than saying we are going to scorch and drown because we are burning fossil fuels when, in fact, the termite population of the world alone, or a couple of active volcanoes, puts more CO2 into the atmosphere than all of mankind.

 Well, it’s all a bit speculative because the science is still so loosey-goosey, but if, in the next five or 10 years someone starts yelling about the next Ice Age coming, remember: You read it here first! The Observer is always on the forefront of the news. And hang onto your Florida property. 

Weldon G. Frost, a resident of Longboat Key, served as a geologist and exploration manager in 10 countries on five continents for 37 years for Mobil.