Florida Voter Snapshot: Part II

On this page last week, we presented data showing that in the past four years the Democratic Party has shrunk in numbers; the

Republicans have increased; but nonaffiliated and third-party voters have increased almost twice as much as Republicans. 

In fact, while Democrats once had 42% of Florida’s registered

voters versus Republicans’ 35%, the percentages now show Democrats at 38%, Republicans at 36% and nonaffiliated registered voters at 26%. 

What’s more, we said it’s clear unaffiliated voters will decide the outcome of Florida’s presidential election.

Now let’s get even more granular. It is an increasingly accepted belief among Florida’s political analysts that the outcomes of Florida’s statewide and presidential elections are determined by the I-4 corridor. That would include seven counties stretching across the middle of the state from Pinellas on the west to Volusia on the east — with Pasco County, north of Tampa, now often included.

As the accompanying statistics and 2012 election results show, what was once a solid Republican mid-section of the state has turned mostly Democratic. Democrats outnumber Republicans by 176,852. And the votes in the three most populous counties — Hillsborough, Pinellas and Orange — were solidly Obama land in 2012.

And yet, up until Monday’s debate, Donald Trump was essentially tied with Hillary Clinton.  As with all of Florida, if Trump is to win the state, he needs to persuade the unaffiliated, third-party voters to go his way.