Lakewood Ranch CERT team hosts meteorologist Leigh Spann

The mid-season hurricane prediction is in, and the National Weather Service continues to predict a very active season with the possibility of 23 tropical systems forming over the Atlantic basin.

“That doesn’t mean we’re going to be impacted by 23 tropical systems; it means there are going to be 23 topical systems that exist, starting back in June and going forward,” WFLA meteorologist Leigh Spann said. “Then with 12 (hurricanes), and six of those being a Category 3, 4 or 5, that’s obviously well above average.” 

Spann was the guest speaker at a hurricane preparedness event hosted by The Lakewood Ranch Community Emergency Response Team on Aug. 24 at Town Hall. 

While four tropical systems have already passed through, there are still 19 to go. Spann said warm water is the jet fuel for hurricanes. Record high water temperatures added to the "highest pre-season forecast ever."

“It only takes one,” CERT member Jill Perlin said. “We know that some of our neighbors, literally up the street from here, were pretty heavily damaged after Debby.”

The team didn’t officially activate for Hurricane Debby because the weather forecasts didn’t have the storm hitting the Lakewood Ranch area. President Jim Emanuelson said a number of members walked around on their own the morning of Aug. 5 and didn’t see much at 9 a.m. 

“All of a sudden, about noon, we had homes flooded,” he said. “Our communications department spent the entire day on social media and on the phone, trying to tell people what to do because the water came on so fast. Many residents weren’t notified and didn’t know what to do.” 

Emanuelson said the group will look at widening its window of when to activate and be even more proactive for future storms, but CERT members are not equipped to deal with flooding. 

On the contrary, team members are taught to stay safe during flooding, Emanuelson said, otherwise, they could add to the chaos by trying to help and then needing to be rescued themselves.

Photo by Lesley Dwyer

Instead, the team acts as middlemen between residents in need of rescue and Manatee County. The team shares alerts and calls in rescues, as opposed to being boots on the ground. 

When members are patrolling after storms, they’re easily recognizable by their yellow vests and identification cards. They also carry backpacks stocked with first aid supplies. 

Spann offered a tip for watching weather reports to better understand the potential impacts. 

“You never want to be in, what we call, 'the right front quadrant,'” she said. “That’s where the winds are going to be onshore.” 

If you look at the direction a hurricane is headed, the right front quadrant is placed where the passenger seat is in a car. Spann said a 10-mile deviation to the north or south will completely change where those impacts are seen because the water is either being pushed on shore or back out to the gulf. 

However, 50% of hurricane deaths due to flooding are related to fresh water, and 25% between 1963 and 2012 occurred in inland counties. 

“You have to know your risks,” Spann said.