A red tsunami in Florida

Last words on last Tuesday’s election results. Well, maybe not. But in any case, what happened in Florida certainly deserves to be noted more than it has been — because it’s rather stunning. Let’s start at the top:

Trump versus Harris

Of course, if you talk to a Republican, she (or he) likely will say she has renewed faith in the American voters. But talk to a Democrat, and you’ll likely get what Republicans said in 2020: “I can’t believe the American voters are that stupid and elected that idiot.”

Fact is, that’s the way it is with every presidential election. When can anyone recall when there were two equally likable and qualified candidates running for president? 

Not in this lifetime.

So we go back and forth — a pendulum swinging from one side to the other, with the hopeless hope that one day we will achieve what Americans really want from their government in Washington, D.C.: 

Laissez-faire! … Leave us alone!

That, of course, will never happen. So voters vote the way they do because of one simple reason: They believe it will bring something better for their own lives than what currently exists.

Take it from one of our favorite late Austrian economists, Ludwig von Mises and his seminal book, “Human Action”: “The incentive that impels a man to act is always some uneasiness.” Simple as that.

But wait, there’s more, von Mises said: “To make a man act, uneasiness and the image of a more satisfactory state alone are not sufficient. A third condition is required: the expectation that purposeful behavior has the power to remove or at least to alleviate the felt uneasiness.”

Casting that vote is the purposeful behavior.

So, in short, way more people voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris because they thought the past three years were uneasy. No, make that horrible. And they wanted to end that. 

Or, to be even more precise, Bill Clinton covered it: It’s the economy, stupid. Always.

Bright red in Florida

After Jeb Bush broke the Democrat Party’s stranglehold on Florida’s governorship in 1998, that marked the end of the Democrat Party’s 120-year control of Florida state politics.

From 1877 until Bush’s election, of the 29 governors, only two were Republicans — and even they were Democrats before flipping sides. 

The makeup of the Legislatures in those 120 years was similar — blue and Blue Dog Democrats.

But with Bush’s election, Republicans flipped control of the Legislature as well. And ever since, for the past 36 years, Florida state politics has been solid red.

That is, until Barack Obama became president in 2008. For those eight years, Florida started drifting back to its blue roots. Even the Republican stronghold of Pinellas County turned blue, and Orange County (Orlando), once the reddest of reds with its roots in the citrus industry, turned blue.

In fact, from the Obama years (2009-2016) until now, Florida reflected much of the United States. Its population centers of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Tampa Bay, Orlando (Orange, Osceola, parts of Seminole), Jacksonville and the university centers (Tallahassee and Gainesville) were solid blue Democrat.

Even in 2020 when Trump decisively defeated Biden in Florida, the accompanying map shows the 12 counties that voted Democratic.

But this year, in 2024, as the top map shows, the tide from blue to red resembled the force of Hurricane Helene. Six blue counties flipped to red. 

The most stunning flip occurred in Miami-Dade. In 2016, Hillary Clinton massacred Trump with 63% of the vote to Trump’s 33%. But in 2024, the results flipped. Trump won Miami-Dade with 55.2% of the vote and a vote margin of 125,343 — unheard of for a Republican presidential candidate.

The Trump tsunami carried over to Florida’s congressional delegation and Legislature as well. Sen. Rick Scott was re-elected with his largest victory margin in four statewide elections (55.6%), including a first-time victory in Miami-Dade. 

Republicans also held 21 of the state’s congressional seats; 28 of the 40 state Senate seats; and gained two state House seats, increasing their margin in the House to 83 versus 35 Democrats. Those margins continue to give the Republicans a veto-proof supermajority in the House and Senate, along with the state’s Republican governor.

How did Florida shift so far red? You can attribute that to many factors — one being conservative Northeast, Chicago and California residents fleeing their tax hells for Florida’s no income tax. But perhaps the following numbers tell the story:

From 2016 to 2024:

• Registered voters increased by 1,888,420. 
• Of those, 1,223,613 were Republicans, 64.7% of the total. 
• Meantime, registered Democrats declined by 147,998, 3.2%. 
• Registered non-party and other parties voters increased by 812,805, 43% of the increase in registered voters.

Perhaps you can credit the Republican Party machine for recruiting. But we’ll credit Bill Clinton again. It’s the economy, stupid.