- April 7, 2025
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Although held April 1, the Climate Adaptation Center emphasized its 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Day was "no joke."
Bob Bunting, Chairman and CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center, noted for the last two years, the forecast, which he says ranks most accurate in the nation, only missed the total number of hurricanes and major hurricanes by one.
This year, as he addressed attendees in the Selby Auditorium at University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, he revealed a prediction of 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
"That doesn't mean we're going to have three hurricanes in Sarasota, but I don't see a big decrease coming," he said.
Bunting, a meteorologist, said although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doesn't issue its forecast until May, the Climate Adaptation Center wants to give the public time to prepare.
"It's actionable information to understand that we're living in the age of major hurricanes," he said as he described the increasing trend towards severe storms.
He said while the hurricane season may get off to a slow start, he expects it to see significant activity later on, while it could also be a long season, lasting into November.
He said the two months of the forecast that most concern him were July and October.
Bunting said last year, ocean temperatures were at record highs not seen in human history, while this year was below that record, but "not by much."
"We've had a cold winter here, relatively speaking, but the water is warming up fast," he said.
He noted the current temperature of the Loop Current, a warm ocean current that is an important contributor to the formation of hurricanes.
"We don't get super hurricanes unless they're 26 degrees centigrade or more, but... it's already reaching that level right now," he said, also noting record-high temperatures in the Caribbean.
He noted the current warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which he said will possibly be weaker, but with only a 60% probability.
He placed the probability of an El Niño–Southern Oscillation with low wind shear as "very high," at 80%.
"It's a lot worse now, because the oceans have warmed up so much since 1990 so I count neutral the same way I used to count La Niña in the 1990s," he said.
The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña."
Bunting said in the La Niña or neutral phases, which decrease wind shear, clouds can stack up vertically. He compared this situation to an ice skater spinning more quickly as she straightens her arms.
Bunting noted Florida was in the potential path of storms once again, voicing concern about July and October, the latter of which he noted is the month the community worries about most.
"Whereas July last year was very calm, July may be a month where we have more activity than we would like," he said.
Bunting said he hopes knowing the forecast so far in advance, people will take the opportunity to be prepared.
"I really don't like it when we get hit, but I think the alternative of not knowing is not okay in this day and age where we know so much," he said. "We have to share it with the community, and hope the community uses this information to inform their own decisions, whether they're in government or in their own personal lives, or building new buildings or rehabbing old ones.
