Post-hurricane real estate market hard to pin down

It's a fact the real estate market for homes and condominiums in Sarasota and Manatee counties has slowed from this time in 2024.

Have a look at the key benchmarks for early 2025, which largely are continuations of trends beginning in 2024 and earlier:

• Median prices, the point at which half sell for more and half sell for less, are down across the board.
• Inventory supplies are higher across the board, indicating more properties on the active market than a year ago — even accounting for the region’s typical winter-spring seasonal upswing in real estate activity.
• Across the metro area, the time it takes to sign a sales contract is roughly equal to 2024.

The region’s torrid real estate market of even two or three years ago is over, experts say, and property owners likely no longer hold the upper hand. Gone are median prices higher than a half-million dollars. Gone, too, are properties that sell in days, or even hours, and for more than asking price.

Instead, the area has evolved into something of a balance, says Debi Reynolds, the president of the REALTORS Association of Sarasota and Manatee and the managing broker at SaraBay Real Estate.

“After years of a strong seller’s market, the increase in inventory and more stable pricing indicate that the market is shifting toward a more level playing field for buyers and sellers alike,” she said in a recent statement.

What’s harder to pin down is exactly why. Nationally, in 2024, prices rose and continue to do so in the early part of 2025.

So, what’s happening here? The answers aren’t necessarily comprehensive and connected.

Portions of Lakewood Ranch in 2024 defied much of the region’s trends toward balance — even after the trio of named tropical systems delivered millions of dollars of damage to not only coastal properties but also to plenty of homes and businesses inland.

Mortgage interest rates, Florida’s homeowners insurance rates, new and potentially more costly rules for condominium associations and storm fatigue could play a role. But Tyler Shanahan, a Lakewood Ranch Realtor with the Shanahan Luxury Group, Coldwell Banker Realty, says he’s seeing portions of the inland luxury market flourish these days.

While it’s not all being driven by folks heading east from the beach, he said the inland $2.5 million to $3 million segment is still moving well. He said he is seeing evidence of people exploring options away from the sea.

“That’s a segment of the market that we’re seeing doing very well, compared to other homes at different price points,’’ he said. “There are a lot of buyers at that price point, particularly people who are coming in from the water and people that would otherwise have been looking at the water from other states that are coming down here during season. They’re instead looking more inland.’’

He said that the corridor along Interstate 75 in northern Sarasota and southern Manatee counties offers a lot more than it once did — which means options for buyers who, perhaps 10 years ago, went straight to the waterfront.

“One thing that we hear, and this helps with that transition from the waterfront, a lot people on the water, they have friends who have made it here one way or the other, and now they have friends they come out here to see, and they’re starting to say “oh, wow, there is in fact a lot to do,’’ Shanahan said. “It’s nice, it’s new, the traffic isn’t as bad as it is in the city or on the islands.’’

Even so, the area’s most expensive property to sell thus far in 2025 is just steps away from Sarasota Bay and eight minutes by car from downtown, in Sarasota’s Harbor Acres. The under-construction home sold for more nearly $15 million. The most expensive home ever to sell in Lakewood Ranch, likewise, closed recently.

Beachfront condos in Siesta Key, Lido Key and Longboat Key still routinely sell for asking price, listings show. The ultra-luxurious Residences at The St. Regis Longboat Key Resort was the site of the highest-priced condo sale in Sarasota County history. The nearly 11,000 square-foot unit (two units combined into one, actually) closed for $21.24 million just days after Hurricane Milton’s October landfall.

Anecdotally, there also are plenty of stories of beachside residents who remain connected to the seaside life. Still others are rebuilding or repairing. Some are moving inland. But not always very far.

A heart-breaking tale of resignation to reality came from Hugh and Ann Fiore of St. Armands Circle featured in The Observer last week. Working feverishly to repair water damage from Hurricane Helene, along came Hurricane Milton and flooded the home again. It sold for $4.75 million in January, essentially the county’s assessed value of the waterfront land. They moved into an elevated new home, across the street from neighbors whose property backs up to Sarasota Bay.

Still others are selling as is — such as the case of several properties advertised as land only.

Among them:

• A property selling for $2.4 million in Longboat Key’s Country Club Estates, advertised by the sellers’ real estate company with the description: “Following a complete remediation from storm Helene this could be an easy renovation to garner a nice seasonal rental while you plan your Waterfront Dream Home.’'
• A lot of about 1/8 acre on Siesta Key that sold for $1.65 million in 2021 with a three-bedroom, two-bath home of about 1,800 square feet. It’s listed as a vacant lot for $599,999.

Again, it’s hard to connect the hyperlocal dots in a real estate economy that is best expressed in a macro way. But even county leaders are concerned that lower values — for whatever reason — could affect revenue in coming years.

Speaking to Sarasota County Commissioners in early April, County Administrator Jonathan Lewis raised a flag early in the county’s budgeting process for 2025-26 that the region’s once dependable property value increases are slowing. Not stopping. But slowing.

“Don't misunderstand, it's not a decrease from the assumption, not a decrease in property values,” he told commissioners. “I can just see somebody hearing this and saying, ‘oh my gosh, they're saying property values are in a decrease.’ We're saying that it's not going to be as much of an increase as we projected last year.”