Lakewood Ranch real estate experts expect a steady sales year in 2025

Realtors and other residential housing sales experts are optimistic about the local real estate market in 2025, saying they expect sales to normalize after three named storms and uncertainty over a presidential election caused dips in the regional market late in 2024.

“Nobody has a crystal ball, obviously, but from everything I've read, 2025 is going to be a very good, steady market,” said Lakewood Ranch real estate agent Donna Soda. “I don't think it's going to be a fast-paced market, but I think it's going to be steady.”

Many say areas like Lakewood Ranch have an advantage, with robust new construction, solid inventory and a location less vulnerable to effects of hurricanes such as storm surge. 

Despite slowdowns through the summer and fall, the overall numbers for 2024 stayed strong, according to Laura Cole, the senior vice president of Lakewood Ranch. “I think the market in 2024 is playing out more or less how we anticipated,” she said.

Cole said buyers hit pause from July until after the election. “I think a lot of people went to the sidelines during the election period,” she said, adding that sales picked up through the end of the year.

“I absolutely agree with that,” Soda said. “I will tell you that the election was Nov. 5. On Nov. 6, it was like the floodgates opened. Everybody was busy … They knew that a new administration was coming in, and we were swamped for at least two weeks.”

Buyers moving inland

After two months of being battered by wind, rain and storm surge from three named storms, hurricane fatigue has prompted some barrier island residents to seek new roots away from the shoreline. 

“After Milton, a lot of my showings were from buyers who were wanting to come off the barrier islands,” said Stacy Haas, an agent with Michael Saunders & Company, who focuses on the Lakewood Ranch area. She has also seen a number of buyers from St. Petersburg, “because St. Pete got hit twice with Helene and Milton.”

Photo by Jay Heater

Tony Barrett, president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, has also seen some signs of an exodus from the barrier islands. “I have seen, maybe, a handful of people who are like, ‘Hey, I just moved here, and I don't want to be involved in this anymore,’” he said.

“Even in my neighborhood, I’ve seen a moving truck in the middle of the night, moving personal property out of a house that just closed three months ago,” he said. “So I know that they were disenchanted with the storms.”

Cole said this phenomenon isn’t new.

“We started seeing this last year, not only from the barrier islands here, but from Fort Myers,” she said. “People who want to stay in Florida, but are looking a little bit inland, areas that are not susceptible to surge.”

Many agents also say for out-of-state buyers, the lure of warm weather is stronger than the threat of hurricanes. “I think that our demand is going to be steady, because people are moving to Florida. They want to be in the Sunshine State,” Soda said.

“I notice they've already had some cold weather up north, and my website lights up every time they start to get a snowstorm, bitter cold,” she said.

“People have short memories,” about hurricanes, Barrett said. “People will continue to want to live in one of the most beautiful areas in the world.”

There’s also a significant amount of movement within the community, Soda noted. “It's almost like every five years, they (buyers) could be upsizing, downsizing. Everybody has a different chapter in life,” which helps propel the market. 

An eye on interest rates 

Mortgage rates have risen significantly and that caused many potential buyers to take a wait-and-see posture. Barrett said people have been holding out, hoping for a decline in the market to force rates down.

“That's just not reality,” he said. “I think that we've seen a gradual decrease in interest rates from their highs a year ago, but we're definitely not going to see 3 (percent) again. And I think that everybody's coming to the reality that this is the market that we're in.”

For the higher-end market, however, buyers are sidestepping the interest rate problem altogether. Cole said her data suggest 40% of homebuyers in Lakewood Ranch are paying cash. “A lot of those buyers are more sensitive to the stock market, and that's been fairly positive. So those folks are feeling good and they're buying.”

“I see a lot of cash,” Soda added. “I would say 90-some percent of my deals are cash,” across the board, in all price ranges. “Buyers are going to pay cash, because they're not going to go from a 3% to a 6% (mortgage).” 

For people who can’t do that, it’s a waiting game.

“I think that the buyer demand is just going to continue, and if interest rates start to come down, then we're going to have another fast market again,” Soda said. “I see that more like in 2026 though.”

The interest rate situation favors new home construction, Cole said. “Builders have been able to continue to offer buy-downs and incentives that make it attractive for people to look at new home purchases, versus resale.”

Construction standards are going to be higher with a new home, which will also lower insurance rates, she said. 

“We still need a balanced market, but it (resale) still hasn't come back roaring and for right now, so the builders have the upper hand in terms of being attractive, given the economics,” Cole said.

That seems to play into Lakewood Ranch’s wheelhouse, which has recently added eight new neighborhoods. “That's one of the reasons, I think we've seen an uptick in sales in just the last month,” Cole said. 

“In Lakewood Ranch right now, you can get a townhome for $275,000 … all the way up to $5-plus million. So we’re at a point where we have a solid spectrum of offerings for buyers at all price points, and I think that's helping us.”

Barrett says doing your homework before buying or selling a home will pay off.

“Properties are sitting quite a few days longer on the market, and (sellers) may not be getting the crazy prices that they were getting a couple years ago,” he said. 

“You just have to make sure that your sellers and your buyers have realistic expectations going forward,” he said. “But I say that we're more in a normalized market where the buyers have more opportunity to negotiate with the sellers. And I think that's healthy.”