Don’t fret; growth slowing

Demography is destiny.

That’s a long-debated phrase attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte, who lived in the first half of the 1800s. 

To be sure, there is a lot of truth to it. At the same time, we have a choice on whether we want our demographics to be our destiny.

Either way, you first must know what is about to occur. If you’re a CEO or business owner, for instance, for sure it’s smart to have your eye on the coming trends.

In that vein, at the halfway mark of the 2020s, now is a good time for a snapshot of what is about to occur over the next five to 10 years in Florida’s demographics.

Probably the clearest, most succinct snapshot of what to expect is to invoke the words of a CEO who took over his father’s fast-growing software company 20-plus years ago: “If you don’t like change, this isn’t the place for you.”

That message should have rung like a cathedral bell if you read last week’s editions of the Observers. Our reporters and editors provided readers with details of some of the largest development and road projects that will be starting in 2025 and, in some cases, continue for the next five years.

The story isn’t changing. Florida’s story for the past 100 years is continuing: Population will continue to grow. Here is a big one: In 2024, Florida topped 23 million in population — 23,002,597, according to the Florida Demographic Estimating Conference.

In the past decade, Florida added 3,417,501 people, a 17% increase. That’s 341,750 new people a year — the equivalent of adding a city of Orlando each year.

And here’s a good guess: Most people dislike this growth (present company strongly excluded). You know — the traffic, the development, loss of open space, etc.

But there is good news for those in that camp. For one, take solace in that even though Florida topped 23 million population in 2024 and remained the third most populous state, Florida is still a long way away from reaching the populations of No. 2 Texas (31,290,831) and No. 1 California (39,431,263).

What’s more, Florida’s population estimators are forecasting that Florida’s population growth will be slowing. Instead of adding 340,000 people a year (or 936 people a day), the five-year forecast through April 2028 shows Florida’s population growth slowing to adding only 319,109 net new residents per year (or 874 people a day). 

Notably, the average annual increase from 2024 to 2028 is expected to drop from 1.62% to 1.2%.

Locally, the population change is expected to follow the same pattern — as noted in the adjoining table below. You can see how the growth rates will slow compared to those from 2020 to 2024. 

So, for those who chafe at the effects of population growth, exhale. The flood of New Yorkers, Chicagoans and Michiganders will slow. 

At the same time, Florida’s over-65 population is expected to grow. Florida’s Demographic Estimating Conference is projecting 52% of the growth in population up to 2030 will be those age 60 and older. 

One other notable factor: Declining birth rates. This has been a long-running trend throughout the United States and the world. Florida is no different. State forecasters say all of Florida’s population increases will come from net in-migration. For the foreseeable future, deaths will outnumber births.

But watch out what you wish for. Scholars learned even in the 1600s that population growth is essential to the flourishing of prosperity.