Lakewood Ranch is still a seller's paradise

Continuing a trend more than four years in the making, the residential real estate market in Sarasota and Manatee counties is approaching a statistical milestone in which buyers and sellers find themselves on equal footing.

One of the exceptions, though, is the segment of Lakewood Ranch in Sarasota County, where sales contracts for homes and condominiums in 2024 were signed in less time than in any ZIP code in the two-county metro area. Driving some of that resilience is the proximity to Waterside, The Founders Club and other new developments.

Tyler Shanahan, a Realtor with the Shanahan Luxury Group, Coldwell Banker Realty, said the once-sparsely populated ZIP code is now front and center in many minds. A lot of that has to do with the hurricane season of 2024, which struck the west coast of Florida particularly hard.

“That data that we’re collecting anecdotally is a lot of people who are saying ‘Look, we’re done renovating our house every time it floods’ or ‘This past season was just too much and we can’t take it any more,’ or they’re at least curious at the prospect of ‘We enjoyed our lifestyle by the water, but now there is so much more here than there was, say, 10 or 15 years ago,’” he said.

Ranch homes go to contract faster

In 2024, sales of homes in that region went to contract in an average of 15 days, about half the time as the next fastest area, and at median prices more than 11% higher than the year before ($951,875). Condos, though fewer overall, went to contract in an average of six days — 10 times faster than the countywide average for similar properties. Median prices also were up.

Shanahan said newer restaurant and retail options are springing up not far from residential developments in southeastern Lakewood Ranch, complementing a still-growing list of amenities to the west in University Town Center. Unlike other residential enclaves, Lakewood Ranch isn’t tied to employment centers — though medical expansions of late are also having an effect.

“When you look at other markets and why people move there, there’s usually some kind of industry that drives people there,” Shanahan said. “Lakewood Ranch’s market is unique in that it’s very lifestyle-focused.”

More is on the way. In January, the Sarasota County Commission approved rezoning more than 2,200 acres east of Lorraine Road between Fruitville Road and University Parkway, a major step in plans for further southeast expansion of Lakewood Ranch.

Across the whole of Manatee and Sarasota counties, according to data compiled by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, a market that once favored sellers is becoming more balanced. Median selling prices were generally lower in the first two months of 2025 than in 2024, and inventory is on the rise. Further bearing out that trend, which has been in play since 2021, sales contracts are taking longer to sign.

Real estate experts look at a variety of factors such as these to determine whether sellers or buyers have the edge in negotiations.

A level playing field

“After years of a strong seller’s market, the increase in inventory and more stable pricing indicate that the market is shifting toward a more level playing field for buyers and sellers alike,” said Debi Reynolds, 2025 RASM President and Managing Broker at SaraBay Real Estate.

In 2021, homes and condos averaged about a week as active listings before an offer was agreed to and a contract was signed. By the end of 2024, the annual averages were about two and a half months.

Photo by Lesley Dwyer

In the first two months of 2025, contract times have drifted downward — lower than annual averages but longer than during similar periods in previous years. The winter season is typically the busiest in Sarasota-Manatee counties.

Experts attribute some of hesitancy to interest rates. The period between 2020 and now has seen volatility in mortgages, ranging from a national average of 2.67% in late 2020 to around 6.67%now, though rates averaged as high as 7.5% in mid-2023, according to the Federal Reserve’s economic data.

Also, condominium sales have been slowed recently by uncertainty connected with insurance costs and fees to comply with state regulations. New rules prompted by the deadly collapse in 2021 of the Champlain Towers South in Surfside brought requirements for deeper and more frequent inspections of structures, leading to condo associations upping reserves to pay for potential repairs. Condo owners are generally responsible for paying into these reserve funds.

Condo sales in Manatee fell nearly 9% in 2024, and prices fell by more than 6%. In Sarasota, sales fell in 2024 by 10% and prices by 8.5%. Year over year sales of condos continue to fall in early 2025.

Reynolds said the increased selection and lower prices for condos has created buying opportunities, but “that said, there are many unknowns, from condo association fees to insurance requirements." He added that a knowledgeable real estate agent can help make sense of the market place.

Closed sales of single-family homes statewide last month totaled 17,698, down 7% from the February 2024 level, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 6,503, down 13% year-over-year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department.

Through the years

Time to contract and months of supply are two key indicators of the Sarasota-Manatee area's real estate market. Both indicate a return to a more balanced market after years of seller-leaning metrics.